109
AXPZ20 KNHC 102107
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 117.2W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 12 FT (4.0 M)
WITHIN 45 NM NE OF THE CENTER. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWED THAT IVO REMAINS A VERY SMALL CYCLONE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 15 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE CENTER. IVO IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
22.5N 118.6W AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN VEER MORE WESTWARD, BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW, AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. SWELL GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FADING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE-SIZED POWERFUL SURF, AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. IN ADDITION, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 132W FROM 03N TO 17N MOVING
WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
10.5N75W TO 11N83W TO 08N90W TO 08.5N107W TO 15.5N116W TO
09.5N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 11.5N E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07.5N TO 13N BETWEEN
101W AND 112W AND FROM 11.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 113.5W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 140W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKLY TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF IVO. OUTSIDE OF IVO, LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS THERE ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN
MIXED N AND SW SWELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR CONTINUING TO CABO CORRIENTES AND
TO PUERTO ANGEL, WHERE SEAS ARE NEAR 5 FT IN SW SWELL. FARTHER
OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR, IVO IS PRODUCING SOUTH TO EAST MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, WHILE
IVO EXITS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS
THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN BECOME FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THU
AND THU NIGHT. IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 22.5N 118.6W AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
MORE WESTERLY AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.8N
120.7W MON AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUE TO DEGENERATE WHILE MOVING
WESTWARD, AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE W OF 125W THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE AZUERO
PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N
AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO W WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND
5 TO 6 FT IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, E GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE TO FRESH TONIGHT, THEN FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 06N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH OF 06N, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FADING EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N140W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HIGH ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
TO ITS SOUTH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO
EAST TRADES FROM ABOUT 11N TO 24N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W, WHERE
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 123W AND 140W. MORNING
SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA REVEALED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL
OVER THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN
THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 7 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH MON. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY FOR IVO
FORECASTS IT TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 22.5N 118.6W
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN MOVE MORE WESTERLY AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.8N 120.7W MON AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE TO DEGENERATE WHILE MOVING WESTWARD, AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE W OF 125W THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N
AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE.
STRIPLING
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