896
WTPZ44 KNHC 110231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025
COOL WATERS, DRY AIR, AND NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
TAKING A TOLL ON IVO. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY DECLINING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON ITS WAY
TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30
KT, MAKING IVO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE HOSTILE, IVO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING. IT IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW EARLY MONDAY
AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. A WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND THIS ONE LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 22.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 22.8N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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