821
AXPZ20 KNHC 110405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N
117.9W, OR ABOUT 440 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 11/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 09 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE AT AROUND 12 FT (4.0 M) WITHIN 30 NM NE OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINING WITH IVO, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW
SEMICIRCLE. IVO IS UNDER NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE
TRANSVERSING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST, AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW EARLY ON
MON. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON TUE. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 133W FROM 03N TO 17N MOVING
WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W AND CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO ACROSS THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THERE TO 09N93W, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO 10N97W AND TO
09N106W TO 08N115W TO 10N125W AND TO 11N135W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 11N135W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF TROUGH BETWEEN
110W-112W, WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-93W
AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 140W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKLY TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF IVO. OUTSIDE OF IVO, LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND FROM NEAR BAJA SUR TO CABO
CORRIENTES AND TO PUERTO ANGEL. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THESE WATERS. HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL RESULTING FROM IVO ARE
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM PUNTA
EUGENIO TO CABO SAN LAZARO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO NEAR 22.6N 119.3W MON MORNING, AND
CONTINUE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS IT
WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE, THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MON, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING WED NIGHT, WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO FRI
NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG THU THROUGH
EARLY FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AFTERWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SWELL. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO
THE AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 10N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
WEST WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5
FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 6 FT IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SOUTHWEST
SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE TO FRESH TONIGHT, THEN FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 06N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH OF 06N, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
DECAY MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 47N139W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HIGH ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
TO ITS SOUTH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO
EAST TRADES FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHWEST SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 123W AND 140W. A RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWS SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL
OVER THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO, SEAS ARE
MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 7 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH MON. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY FOR IVO
HAS IT BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AS IT REACHES NEAR 22.6N 119.3W
MON MORNING, AND CONTINUE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE, THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE,
WITH MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND
WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE.
AGUIRRE
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