399
WTPZ44 KNHC 110847
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
IVO HAS BECOME DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS BASED ON
PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES.
THE MOTION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 295/9 KT. IVO
SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA,
SOLUTION.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, IT IS UNLIKELY TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VERY SOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 22.7N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0600Z 23.0N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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