769
AXPZ20 KNHC 111005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 118.7W, OR ABOUT
485 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT AROUND 11 FT
WITHIN 30 NM NE OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
IVO IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. IT IS DEPICTED AS LARGE
CYCLONIC SWIRL OF MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. IT IS
MOVING ACROSS INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIR
MASS. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST, AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
THIS MORNING. IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TUE NIGHT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 135W FROM 03N TO 17N MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
SEEN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO
15N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 10N88W TO
10N100W TO 07N113W TO 09N120W TO 11N130W AND TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-98W AND WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 140W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKLY TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF IVO. A 1018 MB HIGH CENTER
IS ANALYZED AT 31N126W. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THESE WATERS.
HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL
RESULTING FROM IVO ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM PUNTA EUGENIO TO CABO SAN LAZARO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHWEST TO
MODERATE TO FRESH IN SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO JUST WEST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT NEARS 23.0N
120.3W THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. IN ITS
WAKE, A BROAD RIDGE WILL REFORM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR THE PRESENT LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TO INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH
WED, AND FOR THE LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
INTO FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE EAST WINDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION MOSTLY
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA, WHERE SEAS ARE 4
TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO WEST WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 6
FT IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SOUTHWEST SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH
SPEEDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WATERS NORTH OF
06N THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH 06N THROUGH THU NIGHT, THEN
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WILL DECAY TODAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 47N140W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HIGH ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHWEST SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS SEEN IN
A PAIR OF OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. AN AREA
OF SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SWELL IS SOUTH
OF 05N BETWEEN 127W-133W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO,
SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY FOR
IVO HAS IT BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AS IT REACHES NEAR 23.0N 120.3W
THIS AFTERNOON, MOVES TO NEAR 23.0N 122.6W LATE TONIGHT, TO NEAR
23.0N 125.0W TUE AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATING LATE TUE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH TUE, WITH MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH
OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE.
AGUIRRE
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