839
WTNT25 KNHC 111443
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 27.3W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.5N 31.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 38.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N 54.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 28.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
FORECASTER PAPIN
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