994
AXPZ20 KNHC 111551
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 119.6W AT 11/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
AROUND 10 FT WITHIN 30 NM NE OF THE CENTER. THE LAST BIT OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO DISSIPATED ABOUT 15 HOURS AGO, AND
IT HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE LAST
PUBLIC ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 137W FROM 03N TO 15N MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 09N93W TO 07N110W TO
14N120W TO 11N133W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 08N E OF 80W,
INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF PANAMA, FROM 07N TO 12N
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW, AND
THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 140W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKLY TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF IVO. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHILE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
OVER THESE WATERS. HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST SWELL RESULTING FROM IVO ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN
LAZARO. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE OVER THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS
ARE 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
ARE SEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD RIDGE WILL REFORM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR THE PRESENT
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TO INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH
WED, AND FOR THE LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
INTO FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND
TO 89W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THIS WINDS. GENTLE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE AZUERO PENINSULA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND
5 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF 04N IN CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH
SPEEDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WATERS NORTH OF
06N THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH 06N THROUGH THU NIGHT, THEN
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WILL DECAY TODAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 47N140W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING
IN GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N
BETWEEN 134W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHWEST
SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
120W AND 140W AS SEEN IN A PAIR OF LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
OUTSIDE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE,
WITH MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND
WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE.
GR
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