489
AXPZ20 KNHC 112122
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 139W FROM 03N TO 15N MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 138W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N95W TO 07N115W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N115W TO 09N125W TO 11N136W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND N OF 06N E OF 80W, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF PANAMA, FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W, AND FROM 08N
TO 10N W OF 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 140W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
SUPPORTS LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
EXCEPT N OF 30.5N WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4
FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO MOVES WESTWARD AND
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, A BROAD RIDGE WILL REFORM WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE WINDS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, N OF 30N, MODERATE
TO FRESH S WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN THU THROUGH
SAT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FORECAST. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 90W. SEAS ARE 5
TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
GULF OF PANAMA TO THE AZUERO PENINSULA WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH
OF 04N, AND 5 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF 04N IN CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH
SPEEDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION, MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WATERS NORTH OF 06N THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH 06N THROUGH THU
NIGHT, THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 45N142W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO
SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM
NW QUADRANT OF IVO, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. IN ADDITION, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 135W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS SEEN IN
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO,
SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL, EXCEPT N
OF 29N AND W OF 135W WHERE SEAS ARE 8 FT PRIMARILY IN N TO NE
SWELL.
THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH, AND
THUS DISSIPATE ON TUE. AT THE SAME TIME, A VERY BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES THROUGH WED. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE
NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
GR
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