591
AXPZ20 KNHC 120405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR 95W, MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADDED BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
101W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR 140W, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N100W TO 10N116W TO
13N122W TO 10N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM 00N
TO 11N E OF 87W, AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY
MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN
LUCAS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL ACROSS THESE WATERS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT
N OF 30.5N WHERE MODERATE SE WINDS ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3
FT, EXCEPT TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE WINDS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, N OF 30N,
MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN
THU THROUGH SAT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE FORECAST. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO 90W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE AZUERO
PENINSULA WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF
04N IN CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH
SPEEDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION, MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WATERS NORTH OF 06N THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH 06N THROUGH THU
NIGHT, THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
REMNANT LOW OF IVO SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF IVO, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. IN
ADDITION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 135W.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
120W AND 140W. OUTSIDE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO, SEAS ARE
MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL, EXCEPT N OF 29N AND
W OF 135W WHERE SEAS ARE 7-8 FT PRIMARILY IN N TO NE SWELL.
THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH, AND
THUS DISSIPATE ON TUE. AT THE SAME TIME, A VERY BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES THROUGH WED. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE
NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAMOS
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