251
ABNT20 KNHC 120523
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF AMERICA:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN, LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC:
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, CANADA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF ITS CENTER. SOME
LIMITED TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS, ENDING ITS CHANCES
FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
NORTHEASTERN GULF:
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHERN
ALABAMA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL HAZARDS
RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.
FORECASTER PASCH
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