336
AXPZ20 KNHC 120957
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0850 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR 97W,
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N110W TO 12N134W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 12N134W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 12N140W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM 02N TO 14N E OF 92W, AND
FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 121W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 45N145W
SE TO JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1001 MB LOW OVER SE CALIFORNIA TO
LOS CABOS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 5
TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N,
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS ARE 3
TO 4 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, GENERATING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS, AND SUPPORTING MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW WHILE SEAS STAY IN THE 5 TO 6 FT
RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, N OF 28N, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING, AND RESUME AGAIN LATE THU
THROUGH SAT, LIKELY REACHING STRONG SPEEDS AND SEAS TO 5 FT
FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST, AFFECTING THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS PROVIDING
MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL
AS GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO
6 FT PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSE AND SEAS
MODERATE IN SW SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS
ALONG WITH SEAS TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE COSTA RICA,
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
GENTLE SPEEDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO, GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI, AFFECTING THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ON FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO NEAR 23N122W SUPPORTS AN AREA
OF MODERATE NE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 105 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE 1012
MB LOW. SEAS WITH THESE MODERATE WINDS ARE 7 TO 8 FT. IN
ADDITION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 128W. MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON/ITCZ W OF 92W. OUTSIDE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO, SEAS
ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH TODAY,
AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A VERY BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES THROUGH WED. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
RAMOS
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