779
AXPZ20 KNHC 121540
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W N OF 04N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 104W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
100W AND 103W. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 10N97W TO 08N115W TO
12N122W TO 12N134W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N134W TO BEYOND
12N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W, FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 121W, AND
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION ALONG 145W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SE TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF
30N, SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE 3 TO 4 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION,
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW WHILE SEAS STAY IN THE 5 TO 6 FT
RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, N OF 30N, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING, AND RESUME AGAIN LATE THU
THROUGH SAT, LIKELY REACHING STRONG SPEEDS WITH SEAS TO 5 FT
FRIDAY.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS PROVIDING
MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL
AS GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO
6 FT PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AMERICA
OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
GENTLE SPEEDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO, GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI, AFFECTING THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ON FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE REMNANT
LOW OF IVO NEAR 24N123W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE NE WINDS
WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE 1012 MB LOW. SEAS WITH
THESE MODERATE WINDS ARE 7 TO 8 FT. IN ADDITION, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES
FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 128W. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SE TO S WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON/ITCZ W OF 92W.
OUTSIDE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7
FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH TODAY,
AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS THROUGH WED
WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD, AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THROUGH WED. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
GR
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