097
AXPZ20 KNHC 122122
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, WITH AXIS ALONG 85W, EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 04N. AN AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 05N MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W
AND 104W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N99W TO 10N110W TO
12N121W TO 12N134W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N134W TO BEYOND
12N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO
13N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W, AND FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 120W. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NEAR 14N121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION ALONG 146W, WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER
DATA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REFORM WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE WINDS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF THU
THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THERE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW OF THE UNITED
STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT
88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 05N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 05N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WED THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND
7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 05N OR 06N THE REST
OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
S OF 05N OR 06N THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS,
KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 44N146W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
REMNANT LOW OF IVO HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH ALONG 123W/124W
AND N OF 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 30N130W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 123W
AND 130W. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH TO ABOUT 20N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 105W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH W OF 105W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO,
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION WHILE STRENGTHENING A LITTLE.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 110W. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK- WEEK.
GR
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