338
AXPZ20 KNHC 130406
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, WITH AXIS ALONG 85W, EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 04N. AN AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 02N TO 16N, MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. FRESH WINDS ARE
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N110W TO 12N124W TO
11N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO
14N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W, AND FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS.
THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE
MODERATE SE WINDS ARE NOTED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC AND OAXACA OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REFORM WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE WINDS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF THU
THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THERE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW OF THE UNITED
STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF
05N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 05N.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WED THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND
7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 05N OR 06N THE REST
OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
S OF 05N OR 06N THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS,
KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 43N147W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IVO REMNANT TROUGH IS ALONG 124W/125W
FROM 22N TO 25N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 31N131W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 125W
AND 137W. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE OBSERVED N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO ABOUT 20N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO,
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION WHILE STRENGTHENING A LITTLE.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 110W. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
RAMOS
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