445
WTNT45 KNHC 130843
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
500 AM AST WED AUG 13 2025
DEEP CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF ERIN'S CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
HAVE A RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING APPEARANCE, WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
STORM AT THIS TIME. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE
ESTIMATES, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.
ERIN HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS, AND A RELATIVELY DRY
MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THE SYSTEM'S ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN PARTICULAR, ERIN WILL
BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OCEAN WATERS WITH LIKELY A
LITTLE LESS ENVIRONMENTAL SUBSIDENCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONES AND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
ERIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS, HCCA, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND MODEL
GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE
CYCLONE IS CONTINUING ON ITS GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, AT ABOUT
260/17 KT. A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE
NORTH OF ERIN, AND IN A FEW DAYS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE
RIDGE NEAR 65W LONGITUDE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
BEGIN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HCCA SOLUTION
AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL TRACK FORECAST SUITE. THIS
IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. USERS ARE
REMINDED THAT NHC TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF 120-180 N
MI (150-215 STATUTE MILES) AT DAYS 4 AND 5, AND FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE FORECAST ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERIN COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE SOME
IMPACTS ON THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE IMPACTS
IS STILL NOT KNOWN, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
2. THERE IS EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACTS MIGHT OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, THE BAHAMAS, THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES, AND BERMUDA NEXT WEEK. AS WE APPROACH THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON, THIS IS AN OPPORTUNE
TIME TO ENSURE YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS ARE IN PLACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 16.5N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 16.4N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 16.5N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 17.8N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 18.6N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.5N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 21.3N 63.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 23.4N 66.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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