022
AXPZ20 KNHC 130955
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, WITH AXIS ALONG 87W,
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR
04N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N
BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 94W AND 109W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH
HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N115W TO 12N124W TO
12N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 00N TO 08N
E OF 80W, AND FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEAS TO 3 FT. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE OAXACA AND GUERRERO OFFSHORE
WATERS, SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE WINDS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE TO
FRESH SE TO S WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF THU THROUGH
SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THERE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW OF THE UNITED
STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AMERICA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION TODAY THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 05N OR 06N
THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED S OF 05N OR 06N THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS, KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 43N151W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IVO REMNANT TROUGH IS ALONG 125W FROM
21N TO 24N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A 1020
MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 31N131W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 125W AND
130W. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE OBSERVED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO ABOUT 20N AND W OF 121W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND
128W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH, REMNANT LOW OF IVO, WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
CELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION WHILE
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND
WEST OF 110W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
RAMOS
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