878
AXPZ20 KNHC 131554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 88W, NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 04N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND
91W.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 103W FROM 04N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 99W AND 109W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N115W TO 11N100W TO
09N115W TO 12N124W TO 11N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 86W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA, AND FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE
TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS. THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LUCAS AND
PUNTA EUGENIA WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS. MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE
WINDS. IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS THU THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTEN THERE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SW OF THE UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 6 OF 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AMERICA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION TODAY THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 05N OR 06N
THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED S OF 05N OR 06N THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS, KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N131W DOMINATES THE WATERS
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W PRODUCING IN GENERAL GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVO
EXTENDS FROM 25N124W TO 18N128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ROUGHLY FROM 22N TO 29N
BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE SEEN
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF IVO, WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
CELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION WHILE
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND
WEST OF 110W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK- WEEK.
GR
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