508
AXPZ20 KNHC 132121
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 06N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W FROM 04N TO 19N, MOVING
WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N104W TO 09N115W TO
12N124W TO 11N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W, AND FROM 03N
TO 13N W OF 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
07.5N E OF 81W, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF PANAMA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE
TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS. THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND
MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LUCAS AND PUNTA EUGENIA
WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GULF, WITH MANLY GENTLE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL. HOWEVER, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE, WITH
AXIS ALONG 104W. THESE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE TO
FRESH SE TO S WINDS THU THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN THERE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW OF THE UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 6 OF 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND
TO ABOUT 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 06N WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 05N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3 TO 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH STRONG SPEEDS AT LEAST TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND
7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 06N THE REST OF THE
WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF
06N THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS, KEEPING SEAS IN
THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N132W DOMINATES THE WATERS
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W PRODUCING IN GENERAL GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS. A TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVO
IS STILL ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP, AND RUNS FROM 25N126W TO
18N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ROUGHLY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
W OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF IVO, WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING. A HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH FRI WHILE
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST
OF 110W. A STRONGER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GR
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