639
WTNT35 KNHC 140237
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1100 PM AST WED AUG 13 2025
..ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 46.6W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ERIN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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