213
WTNT45 KNHC 140238
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1100 PM AST WED AUG 13 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A SOLID AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR
ERIN, WITH LOW-CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGESTING THE CENTER IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL, THERE
HASN'T BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, AND
THAT IS REFLECTED IN RECENT STABLE DVORAK AND SCATTEROMETER
VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND ERIN SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THEREAFTER, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WARMER WATERS, WITH POTENTIALLY A DECREASE IN SHEAR. THIS
EVOLUTION RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
LATE THIS WEEK, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THAT
POSSIBILITY. WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND, THIS APPEARS TO BE CANCELED OUT BY LARGE-SCALE
DIVERGENCE AND WATER TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29C. MOST MODELS RESPOND
TO THIS BY SHOWING A LOWER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AT THAT TIME.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 24 H BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/14 KT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR STEERING. ERIN SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BREAK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM, AND ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY DAY 5 BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AND THE
GOOGLE DEEP MIND MODEL. THERE IS STILL A GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT IMPACTS ERIN MAY BRING TO PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND BERMUDA IN THE
LONG RANGE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS, AND
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE CORE OF ERIN PASSES NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN.
2. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACTS MIGHT OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
BERMUDA NEXT WEEK, THE RISK OF DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. AS WE
APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON, THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO ENSURE YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS ARE IN PLACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 16.3N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.5N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.2N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 20.6N 62.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 22.8N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 25.5N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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