885
AXPZ20 KNHC 140405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM GUATEMALA TO THE E PACIFIC
WATERS NEAR 02N90W. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 90W AND IS MOVING WEST AT
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 15N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 20N WITH AXIS NEAR 106W, MOVING
WEST AT AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 23N BETWEEN 101W AND 116W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N110W TO 11N125W TO
11N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 09N E OF 85W,
AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB LOCATED NEAR 42N155W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS N OF CABO SAN LUCAS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE FROM
THE SE, AND SEAS ARE 1-3 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING HEAVY
SHOWERS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM NAYARIT TO JALISCO WHILE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE GENERATES SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE INNER
PORTION OF THE CHIAPAS OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE TO
FRESH SE TO S WINDS THU THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN THERE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW OF THE UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 6 OF 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE ONGOING
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT, REACHING THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OR
THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE IN SW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB LOCATED NEAR 42N155W DOMINATES THE
WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W PRODUCING IN GENERAL
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. A TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF IVO IS STILL ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP, AND RUNS FROM
25N126W TO 18N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ROUGHLY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 125W AND
132W. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH W OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF IVO, WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING. A HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH FRI WHILE
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST
OF 110W. A STRONGER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAMOS
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