269
AXPZ20 KNHC 140951
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM GUATEMALA TO THE E PACIFIC
WATERS NEAR 02N91W. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 91W AND IS MOVING WEST AT
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 16N BETWEEN 86W AND 101W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 19N WITH AXIS NEAR 108W,
MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 124W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N110W TO 10N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES,
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N
E OF 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 13N W OF
126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB LOCATED NEAR 41N154W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4-5 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE FROM THE SE, AND
SEAS ARE 1-3 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM NAYARIT TO JALISCO WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE GENERATES SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE CHIAPAS OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS THU THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THERE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW OF THE UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 6 OF 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 89W. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, INCLUDING THE OFFSHORES WATERS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS OVER THE REGION ARE 4-5
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT, REACHING THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH MON
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE IN SW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB LOCATED NEAR 41N154W DOMINATES THE
WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 115W, PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS N OF 20N. ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TO 20N AND W OF 107W, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM
THE NE TO E AND SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 6 FT. THESE WINDS ARE BEING
MODULATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 128W AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 108W. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH FRI WHILE STRENGTHENING A
LITTLE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 110W. A
STRONGER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAMOS
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