180
WTNT45 KNHC 141434
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1100 AM AST THU AUG 14 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERIN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, WITH THE FORMATION OF A RAGGED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH SOME OUTER BANDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE
DURING THE PAST 6 H AND ARE NOW IN THE 40-55 KT RANGE. BASED ON
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
ERIN WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOVING OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE NEXT 48 H. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME, AND ERIN IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY 24 H. THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE AFTER 48
H, WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.
DESPITE THIS FORECAST SHEAR, THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER
RATE THAN DURING THE FIRST 48 H. BASED ON THESE FORECASTS, THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 H,
FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER RATE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS,
AND THERE IS GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY ERIN COULD BE
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/15. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
AFTER THAT TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OR BREAK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD LEAD TO
ERIN TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW SHARP THIS TURN WILL BE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 H AND
THEN LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS THEREAFTER. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE BY 120 H AND BEYOND, THERE IS STILL A GREATER
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT IMPACTS ERIN MAY BRING TO
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
BERMUDA IN THE LONG RANGE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS, AND
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE CORE OF ERIN PASSES NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN.
2. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACTS MIGHT OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
BERMUDA NEXT WEEK, THE RISK OF DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. AS WE
APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON, THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO ENSURE YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS ARE IN PLACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 16.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page