267
WTNT45 KNHC 142044
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
500 PM AST THU AUG 14 2025
ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STORM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER, A
RECENTLY RECEIVED AMSR2 OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND LACKS WELL-DEFINED
BANDING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW IN THE 45-55 KT
RANGE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS EVENING, PROVIDING INFORMATION ON THE STORM'S STRENGTH
AND STRUCTURE.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY OR
FORECAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. ERIN WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LIGHT-TO-MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOVING OVER INCREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 H. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME, AND
ERIN IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 24 H. THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE AFTER 48 H, WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECASTING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AS A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. DESPITE THIS FORECAST
SHEAR, THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS FORECAST
INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER RATE THAN DURING
THE FIRST 48 H. BASED ON THESE FORECASTS, THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 H, FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER RATE
OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY ERIN COULD
INTENSIFY FURTHER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/15 KT. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN OR BREAK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD LEAD TO ERIN TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW SHARP THIS TURN WILL
BE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 H, AND THEN IT IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 H. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS STILL A GREATER
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT IMPACTS ERIN MAY BRING TO
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
BERMUDA IN THE LONG RANGE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO, MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH
LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, WHERE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT, BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AS THE CORE OF ERIN PASSES NORTH OF
THOSE ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE WEEKEND,
AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.
3. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACTS MIGHT OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
BERMUDA NEXT WEEK, THE RISK OF DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 16.7N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.3N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 19.8N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 20.8N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.7N 66.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 24.2N 68.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 27.2N 70.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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