476
WTNT35 KNHC 142352
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
800 PM AST THU AUG 14 2025
...NOAA AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT ERIN IS NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.9W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA AND BARBUDA
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS,
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
NOAA AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERIN IS
EXPECTED TO SOON BECOME A HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DROPSONDE DATA IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ERIN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE
EXPECTED. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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