565
WTNT35 KNHC 151446
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 15 2025
..ERIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2025 SEASON
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 56.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA AND BARBUDA
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS,
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH
(120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS, AND ERIN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE WEEKEND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM) MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER .
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ERIN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: THE OUTER BANDS OF ERIN ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AND LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS
WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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