767
WTNT45 KNHC 160835
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
500 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2025
ERIN IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR
HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS A SMALL EYE AND A
COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC INNER CORE. THE HURRICANE HAS ALSO BEEN
MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CORE, AND THOSE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DEPARTED ERIN A FEW HOURS
AGO, BUT ON THEIR LAST COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER, THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS STEADILY FALLING. SINCE THE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS NOTABLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT, AND THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
BOTH THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WILL BE INVESTIGATING
ERIN AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING, AND THAT WEALTH OF DATA WILL BE VERY
HELPFUL IN EVALUATING THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 17 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS OVERALL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TAKING THE CORE OF ERIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER
THAT TIME, THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, DUE
TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO SLOW
DOWN AND MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS
GENERAL THEME, BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE, WHEN, AND
HOW SHARPLY ERIN MAKES THE NORTHWARD TURN. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
A TOUCH TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT THE CORE OF ERIN WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
UNITED STATES.
ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF WARM WATER, LOW
WIND SHEAR, AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE. ERIN WILL LIKELY
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND STRENGTHENING COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
IN SHEAR SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING TREND AND INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND THEN FALLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER THAT.
ALTHOUGH ERIN IS A SOMEWHAT COMPACT HURRICANE NOW, THE MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ERIN IS FORECAST
TO AT LEAST DOUBLE OR TRIPLE IN SIZE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO MAY LEAD TO
LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES
OR MUDSLIDES.
2. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
3. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S., AND ATLANTIC CANADA NEXT WEEK.
4. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIN SINCE THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND HIGH SURF BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 19.8N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 20.3N 63.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 21.1N 65.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 22.1N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 68.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 24.6N 69.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 26.2N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 29.9N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/GIBBS
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