577
WTNT25 KNHC 161431
TCMAT5
HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 40SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 62.1W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 170SW 170NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 62.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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