219
WTNT45 KNHC 162043
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
500 PM AST SAT AUG 16 2025
ERIN'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT NEAR 16Z BASED ON
THE LAST COUPLE OF PASSES OF DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER. AT THAT TIME, THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 140 KT
AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 915 MB. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
AIRCRAFT REPORTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS FORMING, AND DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE SMALL EYE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED. THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
MAY BE STARTING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 140 KT PENDING THE
UPCOMING ARRIVAL OF A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER.
THE EYE HAS STARTED TO GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13 KT - A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT ERIN WILL TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
6-12 H ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 24-36 H. AFTER 36 H, THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, DUE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE ERIN TO SLOW FURTHER AND MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN JUST
WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR, AND THE SPREAD HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE
12Z ECMWF FORECAST SHIFTING TO THE WEST. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK,
AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE WEST. THE NEW
TRACK IS STILL TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS DURING THE
NORTHWARD MOTION, AND ADDITIONAL TRACK ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
IN LATER FORECASTS.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. HOWEVER, ERIN SHOULD REMAIN
A STRONG HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME. BETWEEN 24-72 H, INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE LIKELY TO BE FLUCTUATIONS SUPERIMPOSED ON THIS. AFTER 72 H, THE
STORM SHOULD START TO ENCOUNTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHERE
THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE FURTHER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
SHOW AN INCREASED WEAKENING RATE, BUT WILL KEEP ERIN AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT WILL STILL BE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DURING THAT TIME.
ALTHOUGH ERIN IS A SOMEWHAT COMPACT HURRICANE NOW, THE MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ERIN IS FORECAST
TO AT LEAST DOUBLE OR TRIPLE IN SIZE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO MAY LEAD TO
LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES
OR MUDSLIDES.
2. TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 48 H, WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS ARE
LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
3. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S., AND ATLANTIC CANADA NEXT WEEK.
4. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIN SINCE THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HIGH
SURF BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 20.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.4N 65.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.4N 67.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 22.7N 69.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 24.0N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 31.7N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 36.8N 65.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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