212
WTNT45 KNHC 171458
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 17 2025
ERIN'S EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 110 KT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT
THIS MORNING. THIS SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS PROBABLY DUE TO
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT IN THE INNER CORE AS REPORTED BY THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS AND IS LIKELY A TEMPORARY SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATION.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED AND DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE
WITH A IMPRESSIVELY SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
STRONG OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM.
BASED ON FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT, SAN JUAN RADAR, AND SATELLITE
IMAGES, THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
AROUND 285/11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ABOUT THE SAME
AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ERIN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE BETWEEN TWO CELLS OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWARD TURN BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE 72 HOUR
TIME FRAME. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE WEST AT 3-4 DAYS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE ADVISORIES.
ERIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IN A MOIST LOW-TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. THEREFORE, SOME RENEWED INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL, HCCA, IN
ANY EVENT, ERIN SHOULD REMAIN A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
ERIN IS GROWING IN SIZE, AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BEYOND 36
HOURS IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING
THE RISK OF THOSE WINDS OCCURRING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FORECAST
WIND FIELD OF ERIN IS CONSIDERABLY LARGER THAN AVERAGE COMPARED TO
THE WIND FIELD USED TO DERIVE THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO, BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES
OR MUDSLIDES, ARE POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIN'S OUTER
RAINBANDS IN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
3. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
4. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AND BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN AS THERE IS A RISK
OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 21.0N 67.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 21.9N 68.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 23.1N 70.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 24.4N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 25.9N 72.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 27.8N 72.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 30.0N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 34.3N 70.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 39.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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