189
WTNT35 KNHC 171739
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
200 PM AST SUN AUG 17 2025
..ERIN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
..TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 68.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS, AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CORE OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERIN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ERIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES
(335 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 946 MB (27.94 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ERIN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: THE OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO
4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH MONDAY, AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS,
AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SAN SALVADOR ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES
OR MUDSLIDES, ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL
SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
STORM SURGE: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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