232
WTNT45 KNHC 172037
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
500 PM AST SUN AUG 17 2025
ERIN CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS LIGHTNING FLASHES IN THESE CLOUD
BANDS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY,
WHICH IS SOMEWHAT BELOW THE DVORAK VALUES, BUT CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATE
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION. ANOTHER AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERIN IN A
FEW HOURS TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK
SEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11 KT.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, I.E. BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL HIGH CELLS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY, SO THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND IS IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
ERIN EXHIBITED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EARLIER TODAY, WITH THE EYE
DIAMETER INCREASING FROM 5-10 N MI TO AROUND 40 N MI. IF THE
REPLACEMENT CYCLE COMPLETES, THERE SHOULD BE A CONTRACTION OF THE
EYEWALL BY TONIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER
INTENSIFICATION EPISODE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THIS EXPECTATION AND IS NEAR THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
NOTWITHSTANDING, ERIN SHOULD REMAIN IN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND REMAIN A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.
ERIN HAS BEEN GROWING IN SIZE, AND THAT TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BEYOND 36
HOURS IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING
THE RISK OF THOSE WINDS OCCURRING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FORECAST
WIND FIELD OF ERIN IS CONSIDERABLY LARGER THAN AVERAGE COMPARED TO
THE WIND FIELD USED TO DERIVE THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MONDAY. LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING,
ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES, ARE POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
3. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
4. INTERESTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN AS THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 21.7N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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