381
WTNT45 KNHC 181540
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
ERIN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING, WITH THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING TO AROUND 935 MB AND PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 120 KT. RAIN BANDS
OVER ERIN'S SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS TODAY.
BASED ON A NUMBER OF RECENT AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES, ERIN'S FORWARD
SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 8 OR 9 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE HASN'T
BEEN MUCH MOTION THIS MORNING, THE HURRICANE HAS AGAIN WOBBLED
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NONETHELESS, THE STEERING PATTERN AND TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST DAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE, AND CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ERIN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS, AND MOVE BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AND
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AN APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.
GIVEN ERIN'S IMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BY LATER TODAY.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM, WHICH COULD COUNTERACT THE OTHER CONDUCIVE FACTORS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK.
ERIN'S EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 34-
AND 50-KT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BEYOND 36 HOURS IN THE TEXT AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE RISK OF THOSE
WINDS OCCURRING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FORECAST WIND FIELD OF ERIN IS
CONSIDERABLY LARGER THAN AVERAGE COMPARED TO THE WIND FIELD USED TO
DERIVE THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE
BAHAMAS EASTWARD FROM SAN SALVADOR ISLAND. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
4. INTERESTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND A TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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