631
WTNT35 KNHC 182044
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 71.3W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BEAUFORT INLET TO DUCK,
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK,
NORTH CAROLINA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK, NORTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* BEAUFORT INLET TO DUCK, NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ERIN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF ERIN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND MOVE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERIN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ERIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
ERIN IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES (370 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB (27.67 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ERIN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS, THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, AND THE
EASTERNMOST CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ARE FORECAST.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA,
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
STORM SURGE: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES.
THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK, NORTH CAROLINA 2 TO 4 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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