980
WTNT45 KNHC 191457
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
ERIN'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SITUATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE ARE STILL WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN COMPARED TO EARLIER
THIS MORNING. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT, COMPARABLE TO
A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER FROM TAFB. HOWEVER, WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8 KT. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS, TVCA.
PREDICTING ERIN'S INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE
CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN, ONE WOULD BE RELUCTANT
TO CALL FOR RESTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER,THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE
SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BIT OF RESTRENGTHENING IN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
BELOW THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE
HURRICANE, WITH THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ACCORDINGLY, TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
BEYOND 36 HOURS IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY
UNDERESTIMATING THE RISK OF THOSE WINDS OCCURRING. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE FORECAST WIND FIELD OF ERIN IS CONSIDERABLY LARGER THAN AVERAGE
COMPARED TO THE WIND FIELD USED TO DERIVE THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BEACHGOERS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS,
LOCAL AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS.
2. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHERE TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES,
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH, MAKING SOME ROADS
IMPASSIBLE.
3. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE BAHAMAS. FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
4. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTS AND ON BERMUDA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN AS
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 72.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 27.0N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 29.1N 73.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.7N 72.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 35.6N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 37.3N 66.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 40.3N 58.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER PASCH
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