443
WTNT45 KNHC 192039
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
AFTER BECOMING SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED EARLIER TODAY, ERIN'S CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION, INDICATING SOME DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT WHICH IS ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM NOW TO PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF ERIN'S INTENSITY.
BASED ON CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND SATELLITE
IMAGES, ERIN TURNED TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING A FEW HOURS
AGO AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW AROUND 330/9 KT. THE
SYSTEM IS SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND
SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA WEDNESDAY. ERIN SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
SINCE THE SHEAR OVER ERIN APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED, AND THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THE FUTURE INTENSITY IS
DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE INNER-CORE EYEWALL STRUCTURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT THE
LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THAT. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ERIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN 4-5 DAYS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
BEYOND 36 HOURS IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY
UNDERESTIMATING THE RISK OF THOSE WINDS OCCURRING. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE FORECAST WIND FIELD OF ERIN IS CONSIDERABLY LARGER THAN AVERAGE
COMPARED TO THE WIND FIELD USED TO DERIVE THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BEACHGOERS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS,
LOCAL AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS.
2. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHERE TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES,
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH, MAKING SOME ROADS
IMPASSIBLE.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.
4. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN AS STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 72.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER PASCH
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