735
WTNT45 KNHC 202037
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
ERIN CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH A
FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-DEFINED OVER MOST PARTS
OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AMSR MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM JUST BEFORE 18Z
SHOWED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE WITH AN OUTER RING OF
CONVECTION AT A RADIUS OF 70-80 N MI FROM THE CENTER AND AN INNER
EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAB AND SAB AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF
AROUND 12 KT. THE STEERING SCENARIO AND TRACK FORECAST
REASONING HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ERIN
SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
MOVING BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. AFTER THAT, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOAA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS, HCCA, GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH ERIN IS OVER WARM WATERS WITH AMPLE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, THE CONCENTRIC CONVECTIVE RING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT-SHORT TERM INCREASE IN
INTENSITY, SIMILAR TO THE DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. BEGINNING IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS, THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES A LARGE INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SO A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM THAT
TIME ONWARD. THE PREDICTED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATES THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY
IN 3-4 DAYS, WHILE ERIN PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.
ERIN IS AN USUALLY LARGE HURRICANE. FOR HURRICANES NORTH OF 30N
LATITUDE, ITS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII ARE IN THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN RECORD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BEACHGOERS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS,
LOCAL AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS.
2. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH, MAKING
SOME ROADS IMPASSIBLE.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG THE
VIRGINIA COAST. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
4. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER PASCH
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