766
WTNT41 KNHC 232045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2025
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE (AL90) LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
ABOUT 1010 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT, BASED ON
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH HAD A FEW BELIEVABLE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS, AND A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
35 KT FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH OR 010/13 KT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SLOW
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO FERNAND MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE STORM WILL LIKELY
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP
IN FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW, WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND THE
NHC FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, CLOSEST TO THE
HFIP CORRECTED- CONSENSUS MODEL (HCCA).
FERNAND HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN GENERALLY LIGHT
SHEAR TO INTENSIFY. THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
HOWEVER, WHICH COULD HINDER ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING, SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL JUST SHOW A MORE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS.
ALL OF THE MODELS PEAK THE SYSTEM AS AN UPPER-END TROPICAL STORM OR
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS JUST SHY OF A
HURRICANE AS A PEAK. AFTER MONDAY, FERNAND SHOULD WEAKEN DUE
TO THE INFLUENCES OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR, AND THE
STORM WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 3-4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 27.2N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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