643
WTNT41 KNHC 240834
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2025
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNAND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING, WITH A CLUSTER NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CENTER AND A VERY
RAGGED OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VARIOUS
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN IN
THE 35-40 KT RANGE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/13 KT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, FERNAND
IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THUS, THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
FERNAND SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN
A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO. HOWEVER,
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE MAY SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN TRENDED DOWNWARD, AND THE NEW FORECAST
PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.
AFTER 36 H, COOLER WATER, INCREASING SHEAR, AND INCREASED DRY-AIR
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND FERNAND IS NOW FORECAST TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 72 HR. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH BY 96 H,
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 29.7N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 31.3N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 35.7N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 40.9N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 44.3N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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