644
WTNT41 KNHC 242032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 PM AST SUN AUG 24 2025
FERNAND CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH A MORE CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A CURVED BANDING
FEATURE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE FERNAND REMAINS IN A WARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR. AROUND TUESDAY, SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE, ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SSTS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING, AND THE STORM WILL LIKELY BECOME POST- TROPICAL ON
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MADE,
AND THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/11 KT. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES. THERE IS
MORE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAN THE LAST CYCLE, SEEMINGLY DUE
TO THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE STORM. GENERALLY THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER, PERHAPS BECAUSE FERNAND ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG (AND PRESUMABLY WON'T FEEL FASTER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS MUCH).
THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE, A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE PAST ADVISORY, AND JUST SOUTH OF THE HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 31.8N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 33.2N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 35.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 43.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page