995
WTPZ45 KNHC 242033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM MST SUN AUG 24 2025
DATA FROM BOTH THE ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETERS INDICATE THAT
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING A RUDIMENTARY BANDING
STRUCTURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THUS,
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E AT THIS
TIME. THE SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/12 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN 4-5 DAYS, THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE NOAA CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA,
MODEL AND THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND, GDMI, PREDICTIONS.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED
TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GRADUALLY COOLING OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET THE MORE CONDUCIVE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
THE NHC PREDICTION IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SSTS ARE
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PASCH
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