876
WTPZ45 KNHC 250233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM MST SUN AUG 24 2025
THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND
IT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A BROAD STRUCTURE WITH NUMEROUS BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER, IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL
ORGANIZED AND REMAINS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STEERING
PATTERN PERSISTS. AFTER THAT TIME, A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN SOON, AND THAT
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HOWEVER, ANY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
EXPECTED TRACK OVER COOLER WATER COMBINED WITH A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND, AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 16.5N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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