103
WTNT41 KNHC 250235
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 24 2025
FERNAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER, WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NOTES IN SATELLITE IMAGES. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING STRUCTURE WITH CURVED BANDING AND A SMALL
INNER CORE TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KT. USING A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
025/11 KT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED
AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES, WITH AN
INCREASE IS FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS, AND LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND AIDS.
FERNAND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE 12-24H, AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR DEPICTED VIA SATELLITE AND LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE, WHICH MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT TIMES.
BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN, AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND REMAINS NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 32.6N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 34.0N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 38.7N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 44.4N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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