264
WTPZ45 KNHC 250835
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM MST MON AUG 25 2025
SINCE THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY, THE SHEARED CONVECTIVE
BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GROWN LARGER, WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C ON GOES-WEST INFRARED
IMAGERY. FURTHERMORE, THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, WHICH HAD BEEN EXPOSED
TO THE EAST OF THE BURST, APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED UNDERNEATH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKENING. THE UW-CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING, AND
ARE NOW IN THE 32-35 KT RANGE. TAFB PROVIDED A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT, AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 25/0441 UTC SHOWED A FEW
35 KT VECTORS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BIT
RAIN-INFLATED. REGARDLESS OF THE ACCURACY OF THE ASCAT DATA, GIVEN
THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PERSISTENCE OF THE LARGE,
COLD CONVECTIVE MASS, THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
JULIETTE WITH A 35-KT INTENSITY.
JULIETTE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/11 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TO THE LEFT AND A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND SO
HAS THE NHC FORECAST. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) MODEL. SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES BY DAY 3, AND THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AT THAT TIME, SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS
AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN
FOR AT LEAST 36-42 MORE HOURS. THE 10-KT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR BEING EXPERIENCED BY THE CYCLONE SHOULD DIMINISH TO SINGLE
DIGITS LATER TODAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES WARM OCEAN WATERS.
BY 48 H, JULIETTE SHOULD REACH COLDER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING. THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT 36-48 H. THE REASON
FOR THIS IS THAT WITH THE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT,
JULIETTE SHOULD HAVE A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT
REACHES THE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. WITH THE DECREASING SHEAR
LATER TODAY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR JULIETTE TO BECOME A
HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 16.8N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER HAGEN
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