319
WTNT41 KNHC 250842
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 AM AST MON AUG 25 2025
FERNAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH RECENT AMSR2 AND GMI
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE CENTER AND
THE CONVECTION. THERE ARE ALSO RAGGED OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE, AND THEY HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
DURING THE PAST 6 H. BASED ON THIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025/10 KT. FERNAND IS
BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CYCLONE'S LIFE. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR NORTHWEST, AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK THUS LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OVERALL, THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA
CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
FERNAND IS ALMOST OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. IT IS APPROACHING AN
AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR, AND AFTER 12 H SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
SHOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING
TREND AS FERNAND MOVES INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 48 H OVER COLD WATER,
AND IT IS NOW FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH BY 60 H IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 33.7N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 35.3N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 40.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 43.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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