003
WTPZ45 KNHC 251438
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM MST MON AUG 25 2025
DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING, CONTINUES TO
BURST OVER JULIETTE'S CENTER. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME SHEAR
AFFECTING THE CYCLONE, ALTHOUGH VARIOUS DIAGNOSTICS FROM UW-CIMSS
AND SHIPS SUGGEST IT HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 KT. OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING, AND THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO NOW BE 40 KT. WITH THE SHEAR NOW
LOWER, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO WHILE JULIETTE REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OF
THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36
HOURS DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIETTE TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
JULIETTE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (290 DEGREES) AT 11 KT. DUE
TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, AND THEN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
TYPICAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE, AND THE NHC
FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE HCCA, FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE,
GOOGLE DEEP MIND, AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS. THIS UPDATED FORECAST
IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BERG
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