890
WTNT41 KNHC 251457
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1100 AM AST MON AUG 25 2025
A LARGE BURST OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF FERNAND, WITH 1-MINUTE GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POSITIONED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE BURST. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 50 KT, SO THAT WILL BE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING COMMENCING TOMORROW DUE TO FERNAND
REACHING COOLER WATERS WITH INCREASING SHEAR. THE MODEL ENVELOPE
IS FAIRLY NARROW, AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025/12 KT. A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE CYCLONE'S
LIFE DUE TO STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER FERNAND IS PICKED UP
BY THE TROUGH, LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION, OR MORE SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST, DISPLAYED BY THE ECMWF/GOOGLE DEEP MIND SOLUTIONS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
CLOSER TO THE LATTER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO COLD
WATERS, WITH A FAST DISSIPATION BY THURSDAY AS THE WEAK CYCLONE
OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 34.2N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 36.0N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 38.5N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 44.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page