758
WTPZ45 KNHC 252032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM MST MON AUG 25 2025
A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED THAT JULIETTE IS NOW
PRODUCING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 50 KT WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED BENEATH A PERSISTENT BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT INTERESTINGLY, THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO BEEN
PRODUCING ANOTHER SEMI-DISCONNECTED BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. JULIETTE HAS ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS BEFORE
IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM, AND JULIETTE
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES ARE SHOWING A 40-45
PERCENT CHANGE OF A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE NHC
FORECAST THEREFORE EXPLICITLY SHOWS JULIETTE BECOMING A HURRICANE
IN 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN IN 36 HOURS, AND
JULIETTE COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN IT LOSES
ITS DEEP CONVECTION. DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH IS LIKELY BY DAY 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (290 DEGREES) AT 12 KT.
DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, AND THEN
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE NHC LARGELY FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND MODEL, BUT
OVERALL THERE ISN'T MUCH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 17.6N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.3N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 20.6N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/1800Z 25.7N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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