002
WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
500 PM AST MON AUG 25 2025
THE CENTER OF FERNAND HAS BECOME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BURSTING CONVECTION CONTINUING WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT ON THIS PACKAGE PER CONTINUITY
FROM EARLIER SCATTEROMETER WINDS, BUT IF CONVECTION DOESN'T
REDEVELOP SOON NEAR THE CENTER, THIS IS PROBABLY A GENEROUS
ESTIMATE. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON REGARDLESS WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM. FERNAND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL EARLY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LACK OF
CONVECTION, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRANSITION
HAPPENED SOONER. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030/12 KT. A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE REST OF FERNAND'S LIFE DUE TO STEERING
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER AND RIGHTWARD SOLUTION, SUGGESTING A WEAKER
STORM WILL NOT FEEL THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS MUCH.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,
CLOSER TO THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND MODEL, WHICH HAS HAD A VERY GOOD
PERFORMANCE SO FAR FOR THIS CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 35.3N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 36.8N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 40.5N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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