156
WTPZ45 KNHC 260232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2025
JULIETTE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. A MICROWAVE PASS FROM A FEW HOURS
AGO SUGGESTED THAT THE STORM WAS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE, AND
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE
INCREASING SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, SAB,
AND CIMSS HAVE ALL INCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT, AND THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO THAT VALUE.
JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO STRENGTHEN
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY, AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD END BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26 C SST
ISOTHERM AND THEN MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRIER AIR AND STRONGER
SHEAR. JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS
WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER COOL 22 C WATERS, AND DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
HCCA AND IVCN MODELS.
THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A NOTABLE REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS JULIETTE MOVES TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH EMXI AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 17.8N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page